As is often the case with small, early-season sample sizes, a regression to the mean is inevitable, and the graphic above displays what the mean points per-shot were on attempts from 12 zones on the floor and the free throw line last season. Color-coded for efficiency and listing the percentage of field goal attempts coming from each cluster of zones, the graph reveals some straight-forward insights about shot locations in the EuroLeague.
The low value of midrange shots and the high value of free throws and corner threes is low-hanging fruit in modern basketball analytics, but only 17% of all shots in the Euroleague are two-point jump shots and corner attempts make up just 8% of the total. Digging a little deeper, two zones are included for midrange shots in the middle of the floor to show the layer of nuance to what, specifically, does work in the midrange in the EuroLeague. It shows that teams score around 25% more points per shot on short midrange attempts from the middle of the floor than they do from any other angle where short and long midrange attempts tend to have similar values.
In addition to getting more points per shot in the top of the paint, the value of players who can drive the ball increases in the diagram above, which distributes the value of shooting fouls and the points scored on the resulting free throws to each zone.
When accounting for the value of added free throws – and knowing that 99.9% of all shooting fouls were drawn within 2 meters of the basket last season – the importance of a player who can get to the zone and put pressure on the rim is clear. When free throws are relocated to where the shooting fouls were called, the value of shots attempted around the basket grows, especially in contrast to other two-point shots. On average, a shot inside of 2 meters was more than twice as valuable as any midrange shot taken outside the paint. Although, for some teams, two-pointers in the high-post area were almost as valuable as three-pointers taken from straight on looks at the basket.
Looking Ahead to Round 2
The challenges that players face this season both on and off floor are unprecedented. In Round 1, that manifested on the perimeter, as the diagram above covering last week’s games suggests. It remains to be seen how quickly a regression to the mean will come or if the dip in shot values on the perimeter was just a blip on the radar, but it will be worth watching in Round 2 to see if there is a marked efficiency in attacking the rim – and which teams attempt to exploit it.
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