Something special is happening when 18 teams have played exactly 89.9% of their 306 regular season games against each other and 11 of them are still fighting tooth-and-nail for something tangible.
In the case of Barcelona, the only team qualified to the playoffs, having already clinched home-court advantage, as well, the last goal of the regular season is to nail down first place.
For the other 10 teams, survival is at stake first, and if that goes well, the other three spots in the top four that come with home-court advantage, which has converted into a 75% rate over the years of reaching the Final Four.
First things first, though. Here are the teams that can break through to the playoffs in Round 32 on Tuesday and Wednesday and how each can do it.
Second-place CSKA Moscow (20-10) not only plays Tuesday’s first game of Round 32, against eighth-place Zenit St Petersburg (17-13), but due to its tiebreak advantages over several other playoffs-chasers, has the most favorable qualification scenarios.
A victory would make it simple, but even losing anything but a blowout, CSKA could win a ticket to the playoffs if any of three other teams lose or if several other pairs of teams do so.
The only other team that can qualify based solely on winning its own game is third-place Anadolu Efes Istanbul (20-11), whose possibilities in Round 32 are the simplest: defeat seventh-place Real Madrid (18-13) or hope that TD Systems Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz (17-14) and Valencia Basket (17-14), who sit together just outside the top eight, both lose.
Starting with the three teams tied with 19-12 records in fourth through sixth place — AX Armani Exchange Milan, Bayern Munich and Fenerbahce Beko Istanbul — no one can reach the playoffs in Round 32 solely with their own victory. They all need help, but Milan and one of the others would advance with victories if Baskonia and Valencia both lose. All three couldn’t qualify under that circumstance because Bayern and Fenerbahce play each other on Tuesday, and neither can move forward in Round 32 without winning.
After that, each has variations, with Milan enjoying the most extra combinations with which to reach the playoffs after winning its own game: if Real loses, or if in combination with Baskonia losing, so does Zenit or Fenerbahce. In other words, assuming they all win their own games, Milan is the only one of the 19-12 teams that doesn’t need Valencia to lose in Round 32’s last game on Wednesday in order to qualify.
Bayern’s has fewer possibilities to advance, but the two it has match Milan’s. Only its own victory with a loss by Madrid or twin defeates by Baskonia and Valencia would send Bayern through to the playoffs in Round 32.
Fenerbahce would find itself in a fortiutious position before it tips off later on Tuesday if CSKA were to stop host Zenit in the first game of Round 32. Fenerbahce is the only team sure to advance with just its own victory and a Zenit defeat. That is the only other possibility Fenerbahce has, however, besides winning and hoping that both Basknoia and Valencia lose.
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