EuroLeague Round 33 possibilities: Lots more to decide

After a quartet of new Turkish Airlines EuroLeague Playoffs qualifiers made themselves known earlier this week, in Round 32, attention turns on Thursday and Friday to the remaining incognitos here at the tail end of the 34-game regular season:

First, which teams may fill the last three open playoffs berths; and second, the parallel race to finish among the top four teams and gain home-court advantage in the next phase.

Five teams still have chances to fill those three open playoff spots. However, just two of those five – FC Bayern Munich (19-13) and either TD Systems Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz (18-14) or Real Madrid (18-14) – will be able to push through as soon as Friday. That would leave at least one open playoff spot to be solved in Round 34 or when Zenit St Petersburg (17-14) plays its pending Round 6 rescheduled game against already-eliminated Panathinaikos OPAP Athens on Monday, April 12.

All potential playoff qualifiers in Round 33 need to win their games first and also get help from other results.

Bayern has the widest range of possibilities. Should it win at home against already-eliminated Zalgiris Kaunas, a defeat by Baskonia, Real or Zenit would be enough to put the German team through to the playoffs. Another possibility for Bayern is to win while AX Armani Exchange Milan (20-12) wins at Panathinaikos and Fenerbahce Beko Istanbul (20-12) loses at home to first-place FC Barcelona (23-9).

Assuming its own victory, Real needs Zenit and either Baskonia, which hosts Anadolu Efes Istanbul (21-11), or Valencia Basket (17-15, which visits already-eliminated ALBA Berlin, to lose. Baskonia needs not only to win but for Real and Valencia to lose. As such, Baskonia and Real cannot both advance because Baskonia needs Real to lose in order to qualify for the playoffs in Round 33.

Just as the playoffs field cannot be filled completely by the end of Round 33, neither can the top four spots and home-court advantage be fully resolved.

Barcelona has already clinched home-court advantage and can nail down first place either by beating Fenerbahce or if Efes and CSKA Moscow (21-10), which hosts already-eliminated Khimki Moscow Region, both lose.

Turkish powerhouses Efes and Fenerbahce are also in line to possibly certify home-court advantage in the playoffs with Round 33 victories, but they can’t both do it. Efes would need either Milan or Fenerbahce to lose for that to happen, but Fenerbahce needs both Efes and Milan to lose. As such, if Efes gets home-court advantage, Fenerbahce cannot. But if Efes loses, Fenerbahce may if Milan also loses.

Finally, it’s possible that one of the two teams alive for a playoffs berth before Round 33, either Zenit or Valencia, gets eliminated by Friday. That happens to Valencia if it loses in Berlin while both Real and Baskonia win their games. For Zenit to be eliminated, however, its own defeat in Round 33 would have to coincide with victories by Real, Baskonia and Valencia. Since Valencia has to win for Zenit to be eliminated, however, one of them will survive the week. A win by either team keeps them in the playoffs hunt going into Round 34.